9 Risk Management.
9.1 Revision History
3 Apr 20: First draft of Scope released to PDT for review.
9.2 Methodology.
9.2.1. Identification. The PDT will periodically examine the project for possible risks (both threats and opportunities) and prepare a Risk Statement Form for risks the PDT considers significant. The PDT will review the project during all phases, preparing new Risk Statement Forms and updating existing Risk Statement Forms as necessary.
9.2.2. Risk Types. CESWF recognizes two types of risks: Threats and Opportunities. Threats are risks with outcomes detrimental to the project success. Opportunities are risks with outcomes beneficial to the project success.
9.2.3. Risk Ratings. The PDT will study the project for risks rate every one (threats and opportunities) identified. These analyses and Risk Ratings assignments are a cross-indexing of three variables: Probability, Severity, and Tolerance. The reader should note CESWF typically uses qualitative in lieu of quantitative risk analysis to assign a rating. CESWF requires project delivery teams produce a risk statement form for all risks rated above a “Low” level (see tables 3, 4 and 5 below).
9.2.4. Probability. Probability of risk refers to the chances or frequency that the outcome might occur. CESWF uses five levels of probability, shown in Table 9-1 below:
Table 9‑1: Probability Definition Index
| Probability | Description |
| Frequent | Occurs often, continuously experienced. |
| Occasional | Occurs several times. |
| Likely | Occurs sporadically. |
| Seldom | Unlikely, but could occur at some time. |
| Unlikely | Can assume it will not occur. |
9.2.5. Severity. Severity of risk refers to the consequences of a particular outcome if it occurs. CESWF uses four levels of severity of occurrence, shown in Table 9-2 below:
Table 9‑2: Risk Severity Index
| Severity
Threat/Opportunity |
Consequence: |
| Catastrophic/Outstanding | Loss of ability to accomplish the project (or extremely enhances value in cases of opportunities). |
| Critical/Major | Significantly degrades capabilities to accomplish the project (or significantly enhances value in cases of opportunities). |
| Marginal/Minor | Degrades project accomplishment capabilities (or enhances value in cases of opportunities). |
| Negligible/Negligible | Little or no impact on project accomplishment (or gain if opportunity). |
9.2.6. Tolerance. Tolerance of risk refers to an organization’s (PDT, district, division, customer, etc.) ability to accept the consequences a particular outcome if it occurs. There are three levels of tolerance: neutral, taking, and averse.
Table 9‑3: Risk Neutral Rating Matrix
| Severity | Risk Rating | ||||
| Threat/Opportunity | Frequent | Occasional | Likely | Seldom | Unlikely |
| Catastrophic/Outstanding | Extremely
High |
Extremely
High |
High | High | Moderate |
| Critical/Major | Extremely
High |
High | Moderate | Moderate | Low |
| Marginal/Minor | High | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Low |
| Negligible/Negligible | Moderate | Low | Low | Low | Low |
9.3 Identified Risks.
Table 9-4 lists the risks to the field trip identified at the time of this writing.
Table 9‑4: Risk Coding
| ID | GIER01 | GIER02 | GIER03 | GIER04 | GIER05 |
| Risk | Flooding | Bad Weather | Lost Caches | Accurate Count | COVID-19 |
| Threat/Opportunity | Threat | Threat | Threat | Threat | Threat |
| Rating | High | High | Low | Low | Low |
See the links below for the detailed risk statement forms.